State of the Wardle — October 2026

The month in War Thunder guessing: participation, hardest secrets, top confusions and favorite openers.

Community Insights

87,952 guesses later, here is how War Thunder players think

One secret tank, plane and ship a day, with stat clues after every guess. These are the numbers from October 2026.

Games

17,331

Solved

90%

Average guesses

5.1

Dailies

75

Games by mode

Ground 4.9 guesses to solve on average
7,979 · 46%
Air 5.2 guesses to solve on average
6,265 · 36%
Naval 5.1 guesses to solve on average
3,087 · 18%

Never guessed 2

Air MB-326B
Air Su-22M3

The lookalikes that fool most players

On the day each one was the secret, this share of players guessed its lookalike before getting it right.

Air
F-84F IAF instead of Alpha Jet E
64%

205 of 319 players
Air
F-84F instead of Alpha Jet E
60%

190 of 319 players
Ground
Swingfire instead of GBT 155
53%

199 of 378 players
Ground
Tortoise instead of GBT 155
52%

197 of 378 players
Ground
M109A1 instead of GBT 155
49%

187 of 378 players
Ground
Rooikat 105 instead of Ajax
48%

151 of 313 players
Ground
G6 instead of GBT 155
47%

178 of 378 players
Ground
VFM5 instead of Ajax
47%

147 of 313 players

Z46, Su-30SM2, LVT(A)(1): what players guess first

Share of first guesses, before any clue. One naval game in 15 opens with the Z46.

Ground

LVT(A)(1)
6.5%
M1128
6.4%
Marder 1A3
6.2%
2S19M1
6.1%
T-70
5.6%

Average opener BR 6.4, roster average 6.5

Air

Su-30SM2
10.5%
B-57A
6.3%
P-38K
6.1%
AV-8A
6.0%
He 115 C-1
5.9%

Average opener BR 7.1, roster average 6.0

Naval

Z46
6.6%
USS New Orleans
6.3%
USS Raleigh
6.3%
PT-59
6.1%
SC-497
5.9%

Average opener BR 4.3, roster average 4.3

Ground openers favour Germany, air openers United States

Each nation's share of first guesses against its share of the vehicles; 1× is a fair share.

Ground

Germany 1.74×
25.3% of first guesses, 14.5% of vehicles
United States 1.65×
20.6% of first guesses, 12.5% of vehicles
Russia 1.33×
21% of first guesses, 15.8% of vehicles
Japan 0.87×
6.1% of first guesses, 7% of vehicles
China 0.85×
6.9% of first guesses, 8.1% of vehicles
France 0.82×
7.2% of first guesses, 8.8% of vehicles
United Kingdom 0.41×
4.8% of first guesses, 11.8% of vehicles
Sweden 0.40×
3.2% of first guesses, 7.9% of vehicles
Italy 0.39×
3.4% of first guesses, 8.8% of vehicles
Israel 0.33×
1.5% of first guesses, 4.7% of vehicles

Air

United States 1.85×
27.8% of first guesses, 15.1% of vehicles
Russia 1.55×
23.1% of first guesses, 14.9% of vehicles
Israel 1.41×
5.2% of first guesses, 3.7% of vehicles
Germany 1.39×
19.5% of first guesses, 14% of vehicles
United Kingdom 0.71×
8.9% of first guesses, 12.5% of vehicles
China 0.41×
2.8% of first guesses, 6.8% of vehicles
France 0.41×
3.4% of first guesses, 8.4% of vehicles
Italy 0.41×
3.4% of first guesses, 8.4% of vehicles
Japan 0.38×
4.1% of first guesses, 10.7% of vehicles
Sweden 0.33×
1.9% of first guesses, 5.6% of vehicles

Ground solves fastest, Air holds out longest

How many guesses solved games took; the grey bar pools everything from 15 up.

Ground Average guesses 4.9

Air Average guesses 5.2

Naval Average guesses 5.1

Hardest dailies

Air
Hs 129 B-2 Oct 15

87% solved · 7.1 guesses on average
Air
CW-21 Oct 19

87% solved · 4.3 guesses on average
Ground
Vickers Mk.3 Oct 20

87% solved · 4.6 guesses on average
Air
M.D.450B Barougan Oct 10

87% solved · 5.1 guesses on average
Air
XP-50 Oct 26

89% solved · 4.7 guesses on average

Easiest dailies

Ground
T-34-85 Oct 18

94% solved · 5.3 guesses on average
Ground
KV-122 Oct 10

94% solved · 3.8 guesses on average
Air
He 111 H-3 Oct 7

93% solved · 6.4 guesses on average

Type by guess 3. Nation by guess 5. BR by guess 4.

Share of guesses that match the answer, by guess number.

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